Stalagmites May Predict Next Big One

[L Roebuck]

Stalagmites May Predict Next Big One Along the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Small white stalagmites lining caves in the Midwest may help scientists chronicle the history of the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) – and even predict when the next big earthquake may strike, say researchers at the Illinois State Geological Survey and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

While the 1811-12, magnitude 8 New Madrid earthquake altered the course of the Mississippi River and rung church bells in major cities along the East Coast, records of the seismic zone’s previous movements are scarce. Thick layers of sediment have buried the trace of the NMSZ and scientists must search for rare sand blows and liquefaction features, small mounds of liquefied sand that squirt to the surface through fractures during earthquakes, to record past events. That’s where the stalagmites come in.

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[Azurerana]

I am not impressed with the title and the synopsis.

A) Stal history cannot "predict" anything. All it can be is a record of the past.

B) Their contention that just because they found a crop of stal which apparently began forming around 1810 they are attributable to NMZ activity is specious. U-Th dating isn't so sensitive that you can come up with an exact calendar date for it; merely a range of likely ages.

C) There are many, many, MANY caves and stal in this region which predate and postdate the NM 19th Century quakes. So?

D) Geological evidence of the NMZ and the quake is not that scarce. It is subtle, but not scarce.

E) The caves in question are about 140 miles distant from the quake's epicenters. Shouldn't they be looking at caves much closer to the site, like the hundreds of them in Perry County?

Wish I was going to GSA to hear the paper.